Gold three more than half of the country construction steel transaction volume is slow
The national construction steel trading volume showed obvious regional differentiation, and the average of all regions fell by more than 30% compared with the same period, East China, South China, Northeast and Northwest weekly repair was relatively fast, and the southwest region did not see a significant improvement in the short term.
More than half of the traditional peak season "gold three", the demand is starting to falter, the supply and demand fundamentals of construction steel are significantly weaker, steel prices and raw materials resonance decline, and the "negative feedback" will be staged after the festival. Slow pace of resumption of work in the first quarter, high inventory caused the market peak season falsification concerns, although the current construction steel production is at a low level in the same period, and the continuous decline in molten iron production does not have the conditions to increase production, but at this stage the demand side of the tight financial situation can not be significantly improved, inventory down the channel blocked, if the steel price short-term stabilization or rebound, It must be adjusted by the supply side to release the risk, but the negative feedback after the holiday mainly makes the inventory profit before and after the Spring Festival sharply squeezed to the loss stage, which does not cause too much pressure on the production at this stage, but the raw material decline is significantly ahead of the finished material, and the steel mill's immediate profit has been improved by stages, resulting in insufficient production reduction of steel mills. Then hope in the short-term supply tightening to ease the downward pressure on steel prices obviously does not work, only the downstream demand gradually pick up, inventory into the stage of de-stocking, steel prices or bottoming out rebound moment, through the recent weeks of national construction steel trading volume data can be seen, the country's consumption is in different degrees of marginal warming, However, compared with the same period in recent years, the level is obviously low.
The national construction steel trading volume improved quarter-on-quarter and declined significantly year-on-year.
Up to now, the 11th week trading volume is 272,100 tons per week, an increase of 13% compared to 2022, 2023 reduced by 35%, 2022 and 2023 in the same period is almost flat, the overall can see the national construction steel trading volume gradually increased, but the year-on-year gap is very far, of course, the market also exists to buy up do not buy down psychology, After the steel prices continued to fall, market confidence was affected by a certain pessimism.
The total distribution of construction steel projects in the country "golden three" performance was nearly halved, and the performance in the first half of the 2024 three peak seasons fell off a cliff year-on-year, including 55%, 49% and 39% year-on-year declines in the first week, the second week and the third week respectively. As of the third week, an increase of 8% compared with the second week, combined with the results of the fourth phase of the survey of the resumption of work after the centennial construction festival, the national 10,094 construction sites resumed work rate of 75.4%, a decrease of 10.7 percentage points in the lunar year; The labor rate was 72.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5 percentage points in the lunar calendar. Fund arrival rate 47.7%, significantly lower than the level of 60% last year, according to Mysteel139 small sample data show that the total inventory of thread this week still maintains a small accumulation (increased 60,000 tons to 13.248 million tons), all signs that the "gold three" season demand is far weaker than expected, start delay, slow growth.